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April 12, 2009
Posted: 1645 GMT
Another weekend ruined by the protesters of Bangkok. Particularly annoying as it's Easter. But I guess I should used to it now. I mean it's been political chaos here virtually since the day I arrived in April 2006. In fact, the very first story I did for CNN in Bangkok was the yellow shirt protests against the government of Thaksin Shinawatra. He was eventually ousted in a military coup in September that year. Then his allies managed to win the election, amid allegations they'd rigged the result. So that resulted in yet more yellow shirt protests, including the occupation of the main airport in Bangkok.
Red-shirted protesters surround a car in a residential street in Bangkok.
Finally Thaksin's allies were booted out of office by a court ruling which agreed some had been involved in electoral fraud. I thought that was it...but no. More disturbed weekends followed. This time the yellow shirts had given way to red shirts, in favor of, not against Thaksin. The reds had been slowly ramping up the rhetoric and action, culminating in this weekend's double-whammy. They managed to get the ASEAN regional summit suspended after they stormed the venue. And now they are trying to catch the Thai Prime Minister, attacking his motorcade and rampaging through government buildings trying to locate him. The PM, Abhisit Vejjajiva has declared a state of emergency, but you wouldn't know it where I live. The Thai New Year celebrations are already underway with traditional water-fights being the only form of violence in my neighborhood. What a contrast with the scenes elsewhere in the city, where it was mob rule. So what will happen next? Well, there are several possibilities: 1. Abhisit calls a snap election (which he'd be unlikely to win; Thaksin's allies have consistently led in the polls). 2. Abhisit resigns...then what? Probably more political jockeying for position and a coalition of some sort might be cobbled together....which could result in more protests from one side or the other. 3. Thaksin returns from exile to lead the Red-shirts in a sort of uprising....that'd be messy and bloody, and frankly I think it's unlikely. The former prime minister faces a number of corruption charges and could also be jailed for his conviction last year on one corruption charge. 4. Perhaps the Army might intervene and stage a coup, as it has done frequently in the past. That might help quell the current crisis, but it'd do little to heal the deep divisions between both sides. 5. Abhisit rides it out or gets tough. Either is unlikely to do much for his relations with the reds. Trying to ignore the protests will leave him looking even weaker; ordering a violent crack-down may simply harden the resolve of the red shirts and provide fodder to their questionable claims that Abhisit has dictatorial tendencies. Whatever happens, I think one thing is sure...it'll happen on the weekend. Posted by: CNN Bangkok correspondent, Dan Rivers |
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