March 5, 2009
Posted: 517 GMT

SEOUL, South Korea - I'm sitting at a coffee shop with a local Korean journalist, a fellow North Korean watcher. Our cell phones buzz at the same time. "Missiles?" he says, only half jokingly. It turned out to be just a coincidence.

 A South Korean soldier stands guard at Panmunjom in the demilitarized zone between the North and South.
A South Korean soldier stands guard at Panmunjom in the demilitarized zone between the North and South.

But for a moment there. ...

One North Korean watcher says this latest vigil is like watching storm clouds gathering. You can see it happening. You don't know if it will end up raining or not. But you've seen it before and you know you will see it happen, again and again.

Will they or won't they?

Here's the most likely scenario for the moment.

On March 8, North Korea holds its Supreme People's Assembly. This is like holding national assembly elections except that in communist North Korea, all the assembly members have already been chosen.

The important thing is that one of the already chosen ones is North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il.

It's one of those communist formalities that are steeped in symbolism. The symbol here being that Kim Jong-Il is still firmly in power.

If North Korea was going to fire a missile or a satellite, (a discussion for another day) the thinking is that they would do it sometime between March 8 and the date they set for the first general assembly of the "newly elected" members.

At this meeting, it is expected they will unanimously vote Kim to be the head.

It is not clear when that meeting will be, but from past experience, it should be two to four weeks after March 8.

Another theory that supports this time line is the fact that North Korea has been harshly critical of the U.S.-South Korean military exercise "Key Resolve" which will continue for most of March.

The exercise could provide the perfect excuse for North Korea to fire off a missile or a satellite. Now, as my North Korean analyst friend and I sip coffee in Seoul, we also understand that any and all of this may change.

What if Steven Bosworth, the new U.S.-appointed North Korean envoy heads to North Korea? Again, this may be fodder for another coffee session. But for now, both of us keep of cell phone close.

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Filed under: Asia • North Korea • South Korea • United States


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William Gray   March 5th, 2009 941 GMT

A launch probably won't be tied to Key Resolve. Past launches, in my estimation, are more strategic level provocations. Exercises occur in Korea at a regular interval and while disrupting one would be good for a laugh, I don't think that is the effect the North is trying to achieve.

Stephen McGrath   March 5th, 2009 1621 GMT

As an American living in Korea, it is interesting to watch from this side of it all.. One one hand, one would expect there to be some fear over a country with a standing army of one million troops testing a new missile. At the same time, as an American living abroad (aka reading what the other 90% of the world think of our policies) it is sad that I almost root for poor nations to develop these threats as it is the only way that the Western world will give them any attention. It is quite sad that we just don't make time for people until it affects us. All in all, I'm blessed to live in this great country where, it is worth noting that, 99% of the Koreans I meet couldn't care less about any missile and wouldn't even mind engaging the North on reunification... in any event, keep that cellphone handy (though being Korean, I'm sure it is always by your side anyway!) :)

Jim   March 5th, 2009 2137 GMT

Dear Stephen McGrath –

I am an american that just returned to the US. I lived approximately 7 years outside of the US. I agree with you to an extent! My question why do we have an obligiation to give these poor countries attention. It seems to me the reason why they are poor is because of the dictatorships that run then (Burma also comes to mind as well as a lot of African nations) However the poor part of these nations does not reflect at all the lifestylies of their dicators. It seems to me they want to legimitze their dictatorships by normalizing relations with the US. I saw screw them, they do not deserve it until they reform their countries.

As american overseas, I never forgot I was an america that came from a great and blessed country and returned. Your statement about having rogue nations develop threats borders on treason to the country that gave you the opportunity to live freely where ever you want. Before you denouce the US I think possibly you should remember all the freedoms and liberties you have especially to write as you want on any blog. I suspect N Koreans do not have those liberities and freedoms.

Regards,

Jim

Stephen McGrath   March 6th, 2009 157 GMT

Jim,

Very interesting points. I absolutely agree with you that our freedom of speech is something which many others would indeed die for. I often have to remind myself how lucky I am to come from a country which not only allows, but indeed requires me to question and challenge my leaders and our actions as a nation.

I fear that the comments that you saw as treason were taken to their extreme. I did not at all say that I am in favor of countries using these threats. I don't support terror, be it on a hotel, landmark or cricket team. Terror in any form is a blight on our world. I stated that many countries FEEL that they need to develop a tangible threat because otherwise they are ignored by the West.

As for the other point you made. Do we have a responsibility to notice all nations, no, not at all. Do we have an obligation to legitimize tyrannical regimes like that in Sudan, Burma, etc? No. But, as the strongest country in the world do we have an obligation to recognize nations whether they benefit us or not? I feel we do. It is similar to an athlete saying, "I'm not a role model" It doesn't matter whether we want this duty, as one of the strong, it is our responsibility to lead. When we don't lead, when we don't recognize others, it creates a negative vacuum.

Is North Korea our equal? No. Would we have given them food aid or energy aid decades ago if they had oil, or diamonds, sadly that answer is yes. I agree with much that you said, but you cannot deny that we choose who we help not by who needs it, but by who can give back to us... is this good business? Yeah. Is this how the strongest country in the world should behave, requiring something from others before lending aid? I'm not so sure on that one.

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