|
March 5, 2009
Posted: 517 GMT
SEOUL, South Korea - I'm sitting at a coffee shop with a local Korean journalist, a fellow North Korean watcher. Our cell phones buzz at the same time. "Missiles?" he says, only half jokingly. It turned out to be just a coincidence.
A South Korean soldier stands guard at Panmunjom in the demilitarized zone between the North and South.
But for a moment there. ... One North Korean watcher says this latest vigil is like watching storm clouds gathering. You can see it happening. You don't know if it will end up raining or not. But you've seen it before and you know you will see it happen, again and again. Will they or won't they? Here's the most likely scenario for the moment. On March 8, North Korea holds its Supreme People's Assembly. This is like holding national assembly elections except that in communist North Korea, all the assembly members have already been chosen. The important thing is that one of the already chosen ones is North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il. It's one of those communist formalities that are steeped in symbolism. The symbol here being that Kim Jong-Il is still firmly in power. If North Korea was going to fire a missile or a satellite, (a discussion for another day) the thinking is that they would do it sometime between March 8 and the date they set for the first general assembly of the "newly elected" members. At this meeting, it is expected they will unanimously vote Kim to be the head. It is not clear when that meeting will be, but from past experience, it should be two to four weeks after March 8. Another theory that supports this time line is the fact that North Korea has been harshly critical of the U.S.-South Korean military exercise "Key Resolve" which will continue for most of March. The exercise could provide the perfect excuse for North Korea to fire off a missile or a satellite. Now, as my North Korean analyst friend and I sip coffee in Seoul, we also understand that any and all of this may change. What if Steven Bosworth, the new U.S.-appointed North Korean envoy heads to North Korea? Again, this may be fodder for another coffee session. But for now, both of us keep of cell phone close. Posted by: CNN Correspondent, Sohn Jie-Ae |
Hear from CNN reporters across the globe. "In the Field" is a unique blog that will let you share the thoughts and observations of CNN's award-winning international journalists from their far-flung bureaus or on assignment. Whether it's from conflict zone, a summit gathering, or the path least traveled, "In the Field" gives you a personal, front row seat to CNN's global newsgathering team. Recent Posts
From our Partners
Categories
Archive
|
Loading weather data ...