February 10, 2009
Posted: 1708 GMT

JERUSALEM – I lucked out this weekend and got interviews with two of the three leading candidates for prime minister.

Israeli voters appeared subdued Tuesday, Bill Schneider says.
Israeli voters appeared subdued Tuesday, Bill Schneider says.

We went to see Labor candidate Ehud Barak campaign in a park outside Tel Aviv. Barak greeted me warmly, even though I don't recall that we have ever met before.

He answered some questions for us on camera. Is he expecting a better relationship with the United States now that Obama is president? "My experience with all presidents since President Ford is that each and every president becomes even more friendly with Israel than we can expect," he told me.

I went to a Likud rally Saturday where Benjamin ("Bibi") Netanyahu was speaking. I met Bibi 30 years ago when he was a young press attache in Washington. We used to meet regularly to discuss American politics.

He returned the favor Saturday night. While his aides were rushing him out the door after the rally, Netanyahu saw me, and stopped to chat. I asked him if he would answer a few questions on camera.

He said "Nothing on camera" but he agreed to chat with me off camera which he did for about 10 minutes. Then, against the frenzied resistance of his press aide, Netanyahu agreed to answer one question on camera.

I reminded him that 10 years ago, after his one term as prime minister, the voters threw him out. Now Netanyahu is on the verge of a comeback. What has changed more in 10 years - him or the country?

"You always draw experience from age. You become more thoughtful, more deliberate, you think things through, you listen to other people, you work the team together, - not just as an external appearance but as a deep process," he responded.

"What changed for the country? I think they've realized that the real process that is happening in the Middle East is the rise of militant Islam that has overtaken traditional Israeli-Arab politics. We - out of the best intentions - the Israeli government, have vacated territories. We went out, Hamas and Iran walked in, and we got rockets on our heads.

"The people of Israel want peace, a real peace, they don't want a fake peace that ends up with thousands of rockets on their heads. That's really the first change.

The second change is that they will fight terror and they will embrace peace. They just want to make sure that on the other side of the fence, there is a peaceful Palestinian partner. And for that, we have to weaken the radicals, and strengthen the moderates. This would very much be my policy if I get elected."

Netanyahu also reminded me that I once stood him up for a breakfast meeting at a Washington hotel. I overslept! And he still hasn't forgotten.

We also went to a Kadima party rally for Tzipi Livni Sunday night, but we never got a chance to speak to her. She was spirited away in a van.

Two out of three ain't bad.

Other thoughts:

Israeli voters seem subdued. Even dillusioned. They feel as if they have tried every approach to peace and nothing has worked. They tried negotiations and accommodation under Ehud Barak. Then they tried unilateral disengagement from the territories under Ariel Sharon and Ehud Olmert. Now the voters seem to be saying, the peace process is going nowhere. Security first.

Here's an irony. The election seems likely to produce a big shift to the right in Israel. But the right-wing vote is split between Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party and Avigdor Lieberman's Israel Beiteinu party.

That could open the way for centrist Tzipi Livni's Kadimah Party to come in first. If she does, she will probably get the first chance to form a new government.

But it's hard to see what kind of government she can form in a Knesset (parliament) dominated by the right.

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Filed under: Israel


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Ephraim Smith   February 10th, 2009 2142 GMT

Brilliant analysis and absolutley right on the money. The first results are out and your comments about Tzipi Livni possibly winning due to the split between Netanyahu and Lieberman seemed most unlikely a day ago, but proved correct.

Bill   February 10th, 2009 2235 GMT

Bill, Your report earlier today about the Knesset going to Kadima because of a split in the right-wing vote is completely misleading. This is not the American electoral system; Avigdor Lieberman is not Ralph Nader.

Parliamentary systems rule by coalition, which "unsplit" any so-called splitting of a vote. Even if Israelis "split" their vote between Likud and Beitenu, thus giving Kadima a larger number of seats, the two will form a right-wing coalition, along with other right-wing parties, and form a majority to govern.

What you said was true, but ultimately inaccurate. Journalism should be clarifying, not confuse us further about complicated issues.

hideaki nagano   February 10th, 2009 2356 GMT

I think exclusion.
What is movement?

Benjack   February 11th, 2009 612 GMT

Benjamin Netanyahu will never make peace with palestinian and he hate foreign workers. He said that foreign workers are cancer to Israel's economy. There must be early election if he leads the government

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