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September 5, 2008
Posted: 1445 GMT
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan – When I got up this morning, heavy storm clouds were gathering over the pale sprawling buildings of the National Assembly. On the eve of the first fully democratic presidential election in more than a decade, it might have be interpreted as a portent for the political battle about to play out inside the fading 1960s building. 
A U.S. raid against militants in Pakistan has drawn a strong response, as seen by this protest in Lahore Friday.
 And as the heavy rain began to pound the flower beds around the Assembly, one could imagine metaphoric comparisons emphasizing how nothing could dampen spirits here ahead of the vote. Strangely, none of the above apply - despite the recent disposal of the previous president, Pervez Musharraf, who came to power in a bloodless coup nine years ago. I suppose in part it's because the battle seems already settled by the politicians, who are the only people eligible to vote. Also, many people are too afraid to invest too much hope, lest these leaders let them down as so many have done before. The voting begins at 10am Saturday and by 3pm all 342 members of the lower house of the parliament, the 100 senators from the upper house and the four provincial assemblies will have had their chance to cast their ballots. Within an hour Pakistan's next president will be announced. The man widely tipped to win is Asif Ali Zardari. He is Benazir Bhutto's widower and has been leading her Pakistan People's Party following her assassination late last year. To many outside Pakistan it may seem odd. Zardari has been dogged by allegations of corruption and is widely dubbed "Mr. 10 Percent" - an apparent reference to money he allegedly skimmed while in office. As a result he has spent eleven-and-a-half years in jail. To his party and his supporters he is innocent. When I met Sherry Rehman, the Information Minister, one of his close allies, she assured me the charges were politically motivated and fueled by flawed reporting. Whatever the perception of his past, and a good few politicians here have been thrown in jail when they've fallen from power, he's been able to build the political consensus to get elected. Indeed, the Information Minister told me, he has more backing than needed to win comfortably. With this analysis in mind I wasn't too surprised when I was in the marketplace, pressing people for their thoughts on the elections, only to be told that they were more interested in telling me how prices are rocketing and how stallholders are charging far more than the government-set standards. I got the same sense from people wherever I went, be it the wide leafy boulevards of the capital Islamabad or the crowded back-alleys of nearby Rawalpindi. The elections are passing people by and they have bigger concerns. Many are worried about the government. The coalition that's running the country has fallen apart, divided over reinstating the sacked chief justice. The Taliban in the semi-autonomous tribal border region are getting stronger, bringing their fight to cities as the government bombs their mountain hideouts. But don't get me wrong: everyone we met had strong opinions. From my tiny random sampling, about half backed Zardari. When I met with Mushadid Hussain, an ally of the ousted president who is one of two candidates running against Zardari, he told me he was twice as popular as his opponent. His platform for election, he explained, was as "Mr. Squeaky Clean" (his words, not mine). He told me Pakistan has been run for far too long by a political elite bent on keeping power at any cost while lining their pockets at the same time. His strength, he said, was coming from a humble middle-class background. Nobody I met was holding their breath for such dynamic change. Rather it is perhaps the international community, and specifically the United States, that could have most to gain in the short term if Zardari is elected. Of the three candidates he has a reputation for being the most pro-West and secular. The information minister told me the country will do more to take on the Taliban along the region neighboring Afghanistan, from where, American officials say, insurgents have a safe haven from which to target U.S. troops over the border. Indeed, analysts here say the PPP-led government is already doing more than President Musharraf to confront the growing Taliban threat - and more importantly win popular support to do it. Talat Masood is a quietly-spoken former Pakistani army general. Fifteen minutes with him is an education. A whole evening would have been wonderful, but when we met this week - hours after U.S. troops launched their first publicly acknowledged ground raid inside Pakistan - we were both pressed for time. In the few minutes we had, however, he conveyed his concerns about the raid that Pakistani officials were saying had killed women and children. Masood explained how Musharraf, whom the US had counted on to beat the Taliban, had only ever told his countrymen the battle was a U.S. problem, part of the "war on terror." In contrast the new government, Masood told me, is beginning to change the argument and persuade Pakistanis that the Taliban threaten their security and that Pakistan needs to take them on for its own stability. What worried him, he said, was how the opposition, religious parties and the militants would use the civilian deaths against the government, not only undermining the battle against the Taliban but also threatening the stability of the weak new government. That was two days ago. Like many people here I've been somewhat surprised at reports of two more U.S. missile strikes, apparently killing civilians along the border. Although we cannot get attributable confirmation from officials, or travel to the area to find out for ourselves, the many independent TV channels here have given the reports plenty of airtime. The perception here, if not the reality, is that in the three days leading up to a hugely important moment in Pakistan's history, the United States has killed innocent civilians while the man who might be able to help them is trying to be elected president. Perhaps the storm clouds this morning were an appropriate metaphor after all - only less about Saturday and more about the months ahead. Posted by: CNN Senior International Correspondent, Nic Robertson |
 
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