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August 13, 2008
Posted: 1757 GMT
LONDON - As Georgians and South Ossetians began sweeping out burned buildings and gathering up the shrapnel fragments one thing was clear, this is a fragile cessation of hostilities, not yet a peace settlement. Russian and Georgian authorities are each accusing the other of violating the cease-fire terms and of as-yet unverifiable war crimes and genocide. Resolving such accusations could take years in the international court.
A Russian soldier flashes a victory sign from his truck on a road near Gori in Georgia.
More immediately, key questions about the status of the disputed territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia remain to be settled. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov seems now to be suggesting that the populations of the two disputed territories should be involved in that decision. Negotiating on behalf of the European Union, French President Nicolas Sarkozy insisted: "We need and require that the Russian side guarantees the sovereignty of Georgia." Back came his Russian counterpart Dimitry Medvedev to warn: "We recognize the sovereignty of Georgia ... but this does not mean that a sovereign state should have the possibility to do what it wants." That has not stopped Russia using its vast military strength to crush a neighbor of whom it disapproves, mostly because Georgia wants to join the EU and NATO. The Russian military action in Georgia was not undertaken just with President Mikheil Saakashvili and Tbilisi in mind. Russia's first military incursion into another country since the break-up of the old Soviet Union was a deliberate demonstration that Vladimir Putin's Russia (and the conduct of the conflict made absolutely clear that it is still Putin's, not Medvedev's Russia) does not care about popularity. Russia will settle for the respect due to a re-emerging power ready to make cynical use of its military might. It is not operating in the 21st century style of diplomacy. It has succeeded in re-drawing the map by the force of arms and shows no regrets about having done so. The action in Georgia was also a deliberate signal that Russia does not forget slights and that, sooner or later, it will revenge itself for them. Calling the military action in Georgia a "peace enforcement operation" deliberately echoed NATO language over Kosovo's breakaway from Serbia, a reminder that Russians see the West as employing double standards over separatist movements there and in South Ossetia. The message Russia wanted above all to deliver to its near neighbors was that Moscow still remains determined to resist "encirclement" and that those who flirt with joining NATO, entering the EU or co-operating with the U.S. missile defense plan in Europe will rue the consequences. NATO's promise to Saakashvili at its Bucharest summit in April that Georgia's membership was a matter of when rather than if seems to have emboldened Georgia's president and his country to launch the assault on South Ossetia's separatists, thus falling into a Russian trap and enabling Putin and Medvedev to claim they were intervening to protect Russian passport holders in South Ossetia. And although France, Germany and others refused in April to grant Georgia and Ukraine the NATO Membership Action Programs demanded by President George W. Bush, the encouraging noises issued then about the longer term prospects for joining the alliance clearly stoked up false expectations in Tbilisi. A cry that journalists in Georgia have encountered this week from puzzled, bombed-out civilians was "Where was NATO when we needed it? Where were our supposed friends in the U.S.?" That sort of support was never, ever going to be forthcoming. For Saakashvili, who came to office pledging to restore to Georgia the de facto separatist provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the sadness is that premature action has now probably lost him all chance of ever achieving that reunification. The turnout at his post-invasion rally would seem to suggest that his presidency has at least temporarily been strengthened rather than weakened despite the dismemberment of the Army. As one Georgian put it to a reporter: "We elected him and if we don't like him we'll get rid of him ourselves, without Russia." But the pulling together in adversity factor will not last him for ever. As for Saakashvili's hopes of taking Georgia into NATO, those too have taken a dive. Countries like France and Germany which were unwilling in April to anger Russia by giving Georgia a MAP will be even more reluctant to do so now when the issue formally comes up again in December. And while some NATO members will argue that Russia cannot be allowed to wield a veto over NATO's club membership, the opponents of Georgian entry will argue that would-be members have to demonstrate firm territorial borders, plus economic and political stability, qualifications which Georgia may have trouble in meeting in the near future. What shape is the Georgian Army in now to make a contribution to NATO? The other question which arises is how those countries who wish to can penalize Russia for what they see as brutal over-reaction in Georgia. It is all very well for U.S. Vice President Dick Cheney, even Condoleezza Rice, to suggest that Russia's world standing will fall and that Moscow must be punished. But do they have anything better than plastic sabers to rattle? The West has spent two decades drawing Russia into the solving of communal problems like climate change and terrorism. It needs Moscow's cooperation in persuading Iran not to develop nuclear weapons. Even in a gentler version of realpolitik than that espoused by Vladimir Putin, it is not going to throw away all that to please four million affronted Georgians, whatever gesture politics we may now see over cancelled joint military exercises and cultural exchanges. Posted by: CNN European Political Editor, Robin Oakley
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